Program

Friday

Dinner: 6-7 p.m.

7:15-9 p.m.:
Seeing Climate, Seeing Change
Dr. Heidi Cullen
Climate expert, The Weather Channel; senior scientist, Climate Central

MIT professor Ed Lorenz once defined the distinction between weather and climate as follows: “climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.” Oxford University professor Myles Allen has provided an interesting addendum to this now-famous phrase, adding, “climate is what you affect, and weather is what gets you.” Dr. Cullen's talk will explore the connection between climate change and extreme weather events in the past, the present and the future. It will also reflect on the need to improve our ability to visualize climate change as well as provide examples of the energy infrastructure changes we need to solve the problem of global warming.

Saturday

9-10:30 a.m.:
Extreme Climate in the 21st Century
Dr. Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University

It is now firmly established that Earth’s global surface temperature is increasing and that human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the primary cause of that global warming. However, a range of possible future GHG pathways still exists. Understanding how the climate system will respond to various levels of GHG forcing is a critical challenge, both for quantifying the value of climate change mitigation and for building resilience to future climate changes. This session will examine the dynamics that govern the response of climate to elevated GHG concentrations, paying particular attention to the role of fine-scale processes in shaping extreme temperature and precipitation. Further, it will examine the mechanisms by which various natural and human systems may respond to these fine-scale climate changes. Finally, it will explore possible sources of uncertainty in these relationships and offer some direction for constraining those uncertainties.

10:45 a.m.- 12:15 p.m.:
Hurricane Response to Climate Fluctuations and Trends: Where we are and where we hope to go
Dr. Greg Holland
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo.
Download presentation (40 slides)

While it has long been known that hurricanes respond to a number of natural climatic variations, only recently has attention been seriously focused on the potential contributions of natural oscillations vs. anthropogenic changes. This session will start with a short discussion of the recently developed assessment of hurricane changes by the CCSP3, which found that Atlantic storm and hurricane activity has increased in association with warming SSTs. These findings will be considered in the context of variability vs. climate trends and with regard to potential data uncertainties (including the apparent mismatch between all Atlantic hurricanes and landfalling systems). The session will then look to the future and discuss current modeling efforts, the application of current climate relationships to future climate, and the potential for intense hurricanes to provide a bellwether for climate change.

Lunch: 12:30-1:30 p.m.

1:45-3:15 p.m.:
Running the Wrong Way: Mobile radar observations of tornadoes and hurricanes
Dr. Joshua Wurman
Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, Colo.
Download presentation (74 slides)

The Doppler On Wheels (DOW) mobile radars have intercepted approximately 150 tornadoes and nine hurricane eyes. Observations with the DOWs of tornadoes and hurricanes have revealed never-before-seen structures in these deadly storms. These data are being used to explore how tornadoes form, how they do damage, the potential for catastrophic damage to urban areas, and the role of small-scale features in the hurricane boundary layer. Recent efforts have focused on attempting to deploy both manned and unmanned instrument platforms inside tornadoes.

3:30-5 p.m.:
Winter Storms: A Look at the Past and a Glimpse into the Future
Dr. Kenneth E. Kunkel
Executive Director, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nev.
Download presentation (60 slides)

Winter storms can produce very heavy snow, thick accumulations of ice, strong winds, heavy rains and large coastal waves.  They are one of the costliest weather phenomena, resulting in an annual average of billions of dollars in damages, costs and losses.  However, they also have a beneficial side, providing a large portion of the water resources for parts of the U.S., particularly the West, and supporting a winter recreational industry. Research shows that there has been a decrease in snow storms in the West, South and Lower Midwest of the U.S., and an increase in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. This northward shift, combined with higher temperatures, is consistent with a decrease in snow-cover extent over the country.  However, there is a trend toward stronger intense storms in the North Pacific that has resulted in an increase in extreme waves along the Pacific coast of North America.  There is great uncertainty regarding future changes in such storms, although climate models suggest that the strongest storms may become more frequent.

Dinner: 6-7 p.m.

7:15-9 p.m.:
Keynote:  The Threat to the Planet: Dark and bright sides of global warming
Dr. James E. Hansen
Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York

The Earth’s history reveals that climate is remarkably sensitive to forcings, imposed perturbations of the planet’s energy balance. Human-made forcings now dwarf natural forcings. Despite large inertia of the climate system, changes are now emerging above the substantial "noise" of unforced chaotic variability, and greater changes are already "in the pipeline." Implications of continued "business as usual" for humanity, and all life on the planet, are staggering, yet understanding possessed by the relevant scientific community has not been translated into required knowledge for those who need to know — the public and policy-makers. 

There is a clear and present danger of the climate system hitting certain "tipping points" — climate states where warming in the pipeline and positive feedbacks permit large rapid changes with little if any additional climate forcing. The fact that we are much closer to dangerous consequences has a bright side: we must stabilize atmospheric composition at a level that will avoid many impacts that had begun to seem almost inevitable, including ocean acidification, intensification of regional climate extremes and water shortages. Understanding of the climate system, the carbon cycle and fossil fuel reservoirs is sufficient to define general actions that are needed to stabilize climate. These actions would lead to stable climate with cleaner air and water and would have great ancillary benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and wildlife preservation.  As yet, these actions are not being pursued with required urgency. Based on numerous personal experiences, Dr. Hansen concludes this inaction stems from the "success" of special financial interests in subverting the intent of the democratic process to operate for the general good. Solution of the climate emergency requires overcoming these flaws — a feasible task.

A breakout room will be available after the evening session on Saturday.

Sunday

9 a.m.-Noon: Panel discussion with the speakers

Photo courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC)